Positive Signs for Spring, Despite Interest Rate Uncertainly
You’re reading The Housing Brief, the fastest way to take the pulse of the Housing Market.
Early Reports Suggest Sales might be up Slightly Year-over-year in January
A first look at early reporting for local markets in December.
Mortgage Monitor Report: Positive Signs in Housing, Mortgage Markets Ahead of Spring Homebuying Season
Affordability has improved along with rates in recent months, with the share of income required to purchase the median home falling nearly 5 percentage points from October’s 28-year high
The national inventory deficit also improved for the 7th consecutive month which, along with improved affordability, points to a better housing market environment in coming months
https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/february-2024-mortgage-monitor/
Uncertainty creeps back into US Treasury market after Fed, blockbuster data
A rethink on when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates is reverberating through the fixed income market
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-uncertainty-creeps-back-us-060557038.html
Why Americans are So Down on a Strong Economy
Many feel their long-term financial security is vulnerable to wide-ranging social and political threats.
U.S. Expected to Increase Lumber Tariffs This Summer
The U.S. Department of Commerce has signaled that it plans to raise tariffs later this year on imports of Canadian softwood lumber products from the current rate of 8.05% to about 14% following its annual review of existing tariffs.
https://www.nahb.org/blog/2024/02/lumber-tariffs
Where Housing Inventory Went and When It is Coming Back
New data from the U.S. Census Bureau published last week shows how drastically housing inventory has changed since 2020, while weekly data from Altos Research offers some insights on where it goes from here.
Higher Rates and Lack of Supply Continue to Hamper Mortgage Market
The 30-year FRM has floated around 6.8% for much of the start of the year, only moving one basis point from January. Total mortgage activity is 12.9% lower than last year. One reason for this is the 30-year FRM was at a relatively lower level of 6.18% last year.
https://eyeonhousing.org/2024/02/higher-rates-and-lack-of-supply-continue-to-hamper-mortgage-market/
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Rose to 53.4 in January
Labor Market Not Adding Up
The same payroll survey showing strong job growth is showing a concerning drop in the number of hours per worker. Workers in the private sector worked an average of 34.6 hours per week in January 2023; this January they were down to 34.1. Average weekly hours haven’t been this low since March 2020, with the onset of COVID.
https://www.ftportfolios.com/blogs/EconBlog/2024/2/6/labor-market-not-adding-up